The New York Independent System Operator's (NYISO) board of directors has approved the state's second reliability needs assessment (RNA), which identifies bulk electricity grid needs from 2007 through 2016.
The study is the first half of the NYISO's Comprehensive Reliability Planning Process (CRPP), which assesses generation adequacy and transmission reliability in New York over a 10-year planning period.
"The reliability needs assessment is an important tool to recognize potential shortcomings and future concerns about the bulk electricity grid," says Mark S. Lynch, NYISO's president and chief executive officer. "Identifying those problems and rectifying them now will help secure the reliable, safe supply of electricity to satisfy the needs of all New York consumers today and into the future."
The RNA concludes that generation and transmission resources on New York's bulk electricity grid are expected to be adequate through 2010. Power deficiencies, primarily in the state's southeast region, could occur by 2011 and become acute by 2016 if expected demand is not addressed by then.
The need in 2011 is being driven by growth in electricity demand - in excess of 2% per year - in the Lower Hudson Valley and the New York City area, as well as generator retirements and increasing congestion on the transmission system, the study reveals. However, the need can be met by the addition of approximately 250 MW of new resources in New York City or about 500 MW of new resources in the lower Hudson Valley. These resources can come from a combination of generation and/or energy conservation measures located in these regions, or by resources in other areas combined with additional transmission capability into these downstate regions.
For 2012 through 2016, several alternatives outlined in the RNA show there is a need for between 1,750 and 2,000 MW of new resources, most of which would serve southeast New York. Those resources could be located outside of that area if combined with a sufficient increase in transmission capability, the study indicates.